flowchart TD
A[Develop Scope] -->|Assemble Team| B[Understand System]
B --> C[Identify Climate Hazards]
C --> |Collect Climate Data| D[Vulnerability Assessment]
D --> |No Vulnerability| G[End]
D --> E[Risk Assessment]
E --> |Risk Not Acceptable| F[Adaptation Plan]
E --> |Risk Acceptable| H[End]
Adapting to Climate Change
The IPCC defines adaptation as “the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects, in order to moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities” (IPCC (2022)). Adaptation is an active process, in which climatic data and information is incorporated decision making and analysis to inform the actual adjustments being made. Adaptation could come in the form of analysis, changed operating practices, modification to assets or maintenance practices, risk transfer processes or retreat and relocation.
This section of the guide discusses the integration of climate data from a climate change adaptation perspective approaches into the use of climate data to address the implicit uncertainty associated with such data. It is important to realize that adaptation science is far more encompassing than is in scope for this guide. It includes modelling and analysis, governance, decision science, planning and more.
Climate hazards can affect the electricity system in many ways some of which are highlighted in (Braun & Fournier (2016)). These can be the result of acute climate hazards brought on by extreme events or slow degradation in performance or increased maintenance costs caused by gradual changes in climate. The cost benefit analysis of adaptation strategies that are well informed are almost always cost-effective often resulting in an expectation to save many dollars for every dollar spent on adaptation (EPRI (2022)). An important caveat is that adaptation must be well informed otherwise it leads to the potential for mal-adaptation to occur.
The Role of Codes and Standards
These various codes and standards are produced by standards organizations such as the International Standards Organization (ISO) or the Canadian Standards Assocation (CSA), government agencies such as Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) or the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commissions (CNSC) as well as industry groups such as the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) or the Canadian Dam Association (CDA). In some cases climate data is explicitly included in the standard, which has already been extracted by climate experts. In other cases they outline a process which must be followed to understand climate risks and vulnerabilities.
In almost all cases the available documents are about the process of climate risk and vulnerability assessments and few provide concrete guidance on the use of climate data in that process, unless they have been explicitly included in data tables for calculation. :::
The Adaptation Process
There are many codes, standards and guidance documents for adaptation processes which already apply to the electricity sector, which take various forms. Practitioners in adaptation should be aware of any codes, standards, regulations or guidance which may apply to their particular activities in the sector. In some cases these form mandatory requirements and in others they may provide guidance. There are currently many of these documents currently available and knowledge of multiple processes is important to understand the strengths and weaknesses of each approach. Since climate change will have regionally specific impacts, it is important that locally relevant climate data be used to inform the adaptation process.
Some guidance documents are explicit about the use of climate data. For example, CSA W231:25 Developing and Interpreting Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) Information Under a Changing Climate is explicit about the use of climate data to inform the development of IDF curves, which is an important design parameter.
Vulnerability and Risk Assessments
Climate vulnerability and risk assessments are another way that adaptation can be integrated into business activities. These can take the form of stand-alone assessments are various scales or be integrated directly into a business process, such as asset management.
There are a larger number of guidance documents that develop a broader approach to adaptation, following processes similar to ISO 14091 - Adaptation to climate change. A generic process for doing risk and vulnerability assessments is shown here.
It is important to recognize that with a number of risk and vulnerability guidance documents published, there are occasions were terms and concepts are modified to fit the purposes of the agency creating the standard or are simply used in error. To understand the core concepts aligned with IPCC and ISO definitions please see Adaptation Core Concepts and the generic steps for conducting a climate vulnerability and risk assessment can be found at Climate Vulnerability and Risk.
Climate Information Integration
Conducting climate vulnerability and risk assessments is a common pathway to adaptation, but information can also be integrated into existing processes without necessarily conducting a risk assessment, although there will likely be a lot of similarity in terms of the concepts and steps when doing a climate risk assessment. For example, climate data could be directly integrated into capacity expansion modelling either to conduct a risk assessment or as a fundamental step of electricity system planning in an operational sense. Both require the consideration of uncertainty, careful handling of relevant climate data and understanding of how to make decisions with the output of the climate information. This may require specialized knowledge of the data and the process it will be used for. Some tips and important background can be found at Model Integration
References
Braun, M., & Fournier, E. (2016). Adaptation case studies in the energy sector - overcoming barriers to adaptation, Ouranos. Retrieved from https://www.ouranos.ca/sites/default/files/2022-07/proj-201419-energie-braun-finalreport.pdf
EPRI. (2022). Costs and benefits of proactive adaptation in the electric sector, EPRI. Retrieved from https://www.epri.com/research/programs/116584/results/3002025872
IPCC. (2022). Climate change 2022: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the sixth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. (H. O. Pörtner, D. C. Roberts, M. Tignor, … B. Rama, Eds.), Book, Cambridge, UK; New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press. doi:10.1017/9781009325844